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Probatio

Full-scope engagement

Combined AI + Technical + Product Diligence

AI due diligence leads; technical and product diligence run underneath it and report into the same investment view. One team, one evidence base, one ranked set of findings.

The frame

Eight questions, resolved across all three views

01

Does it work?

Measured performance against the task the buyer is actually paying for.

02

Is it real?

Claims traced to evidence: evals, logs, code, not demo footage.

03

Is it proprietary?

What is owned versus rented from a foundation model provider.

04

Is it scalable?

Behaviour under load, latency budgets, failure modes.

05

Is it economical?

Inference economics and gross margin at realistic usage.

06

Is it valuable?

Whether AI features drive adoption, retention and price.

07

Is it durable?

Data moat, switching costs, model-provider commoditisation.

08

Can the org execute?

Team depth, evaluation discipline, AI governance maturity.

Process

How the engagement runs

Sequenced to your process and timeline, with interim findings raised as soon as they are material rather than held to a final read-out.

  1. Phase 1

    Thesis and claims

    Capture the investment thesis and every material AI claim, then convert them into testable propositions and an evidence request list.

  2. Phase 2

    Evidence review

    Code, pipelines, evals, traces, telemetry, provider contracts and invoices. Management and engineering sessions run against specific claims.

  3. Phase 3

    Cross-reading

    Technical findings read against product usage and against the economics. Most material findings only appear where the three views intersect.

  4. Phase 4

    Investment view

    Ranked findings, thesis matrix, risk register and a sequenced post-close agenda.

Engagement tiers

Ways to engage

Three levels of depth, scoped to the access you have and the decision in front of you.

Engagement tier

Rapid AI Red-Flag Review

Pre-LOI, early-stage, competitive processes, or where access is limited.

Covers

  • AI claims and model strategy
  • Data position and rights
  • AI economics at a headline level
  • Technical architecture
  • Major product risks

Typically 2–4 business days

Request an AI Red-Flag Review

Engagement tier

Most common

Full AI Due Diligence

A committed process where the AI claims carry the investment thesis.

Covers

  • AI performance and evaluation discipline
  • Model dependency and AI architecture
  • Data moat and inference economics
  • Product adoption and technical platform
  • Organisation, AI governance and roadmap
  • Detailed report plus IC briefing

Typically 5–10 business days

Discuss Full AI Diligence

Engagement tier

Deep-Dive AI Transaction Support

Complex, regulated or enterprise AI, AI acquisitions and agent platforms.

Potential tracks

  • Model evaluation and source-code review
  • AI security and RAG assessment
  • Agent architecture and cloud economics
  • Data rights and AI product analytics
  • Technical scalability and a 100-day AI plan

Scoped to the transaction

Discuss Scope

Work product

The artefacts that come out of it

Each track contributes to one integrated investment view.

Investment thesis matrix

Each thesis assumption tested against evidence rather than against the management narrative.

AssumptionEvidenceFindingAssessmentInvestment impact
AI accuracy is materially ahead of incumbentsInternal eval set, 3 customer benchmarks, no held-out test setAdvantage holds on two of six task types; eval set overlaps training dataPartially supportedNarrow the win-rate assumption; fund an independent evaluation before close
Gross margin expands with scale12 months of provider invoices mapped to usageInference cost grows faster than seat revenue on agentic workloadsNot supportedAssume margin compression until pricing moves to consumption
AI features drive expansion revenueProduct telemetry, 20-account cohort, expansion ledgerExpansion concentrated in accounts using two of five AI featuresSupported, narrowlyPrioritise activation of the two proven features in the value creation plan

AI dependency map

Solid cyan = proprietary and owned. Dashed amber = an external dependency the target does not control.

Proprietary External
ProductUI · permissions · audit trailOWNEDAI Orchestratorrouting · tools · guardrails · evalsOWNEDModel Providerstwo frontier vendors · no tested fallbackEXTERNALRetrievalown chunking · tenant vector indexOWNEDCloudsingle-region managed infrastructureEXTERNALDatacustomer corpora · labelled outcomesOWNED

Inference economics

Revenue indexed to 100. Inference cost and residual gross margin as monthly token volume scales.

Monthly tokens processed (x). Margin compression at scale is a pricing-model question, not an infrastructure question.

AI moat matrix

Defensibility by stack layer. The filled block marks where the layer actually sits; block height rises with strength.

LayerLowModerateStrong
  • Model

    Third-party foundation models, no fine-tune ownership

    Low
  • Data

    Labelled outcome data accumulated per customer

    Strong
  • Workflow

    Embedded in approval chain, replicable in ~2 quarters

    Moderate
  • Integrations

    Six systems of record, each a switching cost

    Moderate
  • Customer Data

    Tenant-scoped history improves retrieval quality

    Strong
  • Brand

    Category awareness undifferentiated in buyer interviews

    Low
  • Distribution

    Two channel partners, concentration in one

    Moderate

Headline AI features vs. actual usage

Every feature is marketed to 100% of eligible accounts. Bars show the share that used it in a trailing 30-day window.

Considering an AI investment?

Bring the thesis, the data room and the timeline. We will tell you what evidence exists, what is missing, and what it means for the deal.