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Probatio

Supporting discipline under AI Due Diligence

AI Product Due Diligence

Evaluates whether the AI creates real customer and commercial value. A model can work and still be worth nothing if nobody uses it, nobody trusts it, or nobody pays more for it.

Scope

Adoption, value, price

We separate the AI features that appear in marketing from the AI features that appear in usage data and renewal conversations.

Evidence we work from

  • Product telemetry by feature, cohort and account size over a trailing period, not a curated window.
  • Workflow fit: where the AI sits in the customer's process and what it displaces.
  • Trust and review behaviour: override rates, escalation, and whether users check the output.
  • Retention and expansion contribution attributable to AI features specifically.
  • Willingness to pay: pricing tests, discounting patterns, AI line items in renewals.

Worked example

Marketed versus used

Technical observation
Two of five headline AI features are used by under 20% of eligible accounts in a trailing 30-day window, and one of those two is the flagship in all sales collateral.
Business consequence
Sales positioning rests on capability the customer base does not actually operate, so renewal conversations turn on features the company under-invests in.
Investment implication
Revenue attributed to AI differentiation is overstated. Re-underwrite the expansion case around the proven features and treat activation of the flagship as a value creation milestone with a measurable target.

Headline AI features vs. actual usage

Every feature is marketed to 100% of eligible accounts. Bars show the share that used it in a trailing 30-day window.

Scope

What we assess

The product dimensions we assess — adoption of marketed AI features, workflow fit, and the commercial value the AI actually produces.

  • AI

    Model architecture

    What produces the output, and how much of it the company controls.

  • AI

    Evaluation discipline

    Held-out sets, regression suites, and whether results are reproducible.

  • AI

    Training & fine-tuning

    What was trained, on what, and whether it measurably improved the task.

  • AI

    Data rights

    Licensing, customer terms and training-use permissions behind the corpus.

  • AI

    Agent reliability

    Tool-call errors, escalation rates and observed autonomy.

  • AI

    Inference economics

    Cost per unit of value delivered, and margin at realistic usage.

  • AI

    Model dependency

    Supplier concentration, exit paths and tested fallbacks.

  • AI

    AI governance

    Policy, model change management, human review and audit trail.

  • Product

    Product adoption

    Marketed AI features versus features actually used.

  • Product

    Workflow fit

    Where the AI sits in the customer's process and what it displaces.

Assessing whether the AI is actually worth something?

Bring the thesis, the data room and the timeline. We will tell you what evidence exists, what is missing, and what it means for the deal.